The Reformed Broker - Latest Comments in High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

dan_at_economodeling_dot_com — Thu, 20 May 2010 01:32:33 -0000

OK, the bears have set up their trades and are doing their best hooting and hollering to scare the weak longs out of the Euro, and the European and US equity markets. But the European policy makers aren't rolling over like the gang here did in '08, -- the Euro-wonks are actually making policy and regulations that will reduce the easy pickins from the government trough. That looks like Euro community strength and maybe a little bullish for the Euro. (www.economodeling.com)

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

billy-bob — Thu, 20 May 2010 00:31:27 -0000

Thanks for that. Useful and insightful.

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

Teutons — Wed, 19 May 2010 18:16:40 -0000

Dow at 3700 by year's end before it is all over. Most decades ending with '00 are bad for the stock market.

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

reformedbroker — Wed, 19 May 2010 08:49:29 -0000

good stuff, thanks Tamela!

TRB

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

Tamela Rich — Wed, 19 May 2010 08:08:15 -0000

I’m a fan of Buddhist monk Pema Chodron’s book "When Things Fall Apart" and think her work provides a useful frame of reference for the dread we feel about the changes now upon us. “We think that the point is to pass the test or to overcome the problem, but the truth is that things don’t really get solved. They come together and they fall apart. Then they come together again and fall apart again.”

Things fell apart during the Depression, so we implemented entitlement programs and erected new regulatory bodies. Things came together. I argue that the only reason we’re not in another Great Depression today is the post-Depression social safety nets that now provide unemployment insurance and a baseline of health insurance to our elderly and most financially vulnerable citizens. But since we essentially dismantled Glass-Steagall, and financial mathematicians developed products that were unforeseen by jazz era regulators anyway, we produced fake wealth and things fell apart again.

When we can accept the falling apart and coming together of all things in life, we can look at the work before us as an opportunity to build something stronger and better for the next iteration -- until it inevitably falls apart again.

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

Tahoe — Tue, 18 May 2010 22:14:57 -0000

hey Josh. most excellent work as always. This one had me chuckling at

"Richard Russell's latest missive, in which he tells us that we won't recognize America by year's end, will make you want to kill yourself"

With such strong vocals on crashing isn't that when it will do exactly the opposite and place the hydraulic vice on the bears head once again? Don't get me wrong, I am of the belief that there remains significant downside coming - timing being the key - but I cannot get past the mountainous debt across the globe, the complete lack of any reasonable and practical debt-credit-value relationship.

Keep up the awesome work! Tomorrow is another trading day.

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

reformedbroker — Tue, 18 May 2010 22:07:05 -0000

interesting take, thx dan

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

danandreas — Tue, 18 May 2010 21:22:32 -0000

great article! Taleb's are surfacing all over the world! if our market does take a 5000 haircut i wouldn't be surprised, but i'm not trading that way yet. it looks like our dollar has a long way to fall and cushion a crash or correction. we've yet to really experience inflation other than, in my opinion, production, quality and human resources. when our dollar starts reacting and losing value globally, and in relation to euro dollar recovery, then there may be more potential for the great black swan. for now our dollar is a big preinflated air bag. even if we crash because we can't see(perhaps our navigator fell asleep) its not going hurt much
http://finviz.com/futures_char...

Re: High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over The Reformed Broker

Dave Pinsen — Tue, 18 May 2010 20:50:09 -0000

The best time to buy crash insurance is before the crash predictions become ubiquitous.